Congress's Defense Stock Plays: Profiting from US-Israel-Iran War
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The war that erupted between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28, 2026, has already reshaped the Middle East landscape. Coordinated airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites, ballistic missile facilities, and leadership, most notably resulting in the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with waves of missiles and drones aimed at Israel and U.S. bases across Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, while its proxy forces (Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias) have escalated attacks. As of March 2, 2026, the conflict shows no sign of slowing, with President Trump signaling continued operations and warnings of potential American casualties.
In this environment of open warfare, defense contractors are seeing explosive demand for everything from precision-guided munitions and fighter jet engines to radar systems and advanced aerospace materials. Share prices of major players, Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), GE Aerospace, Howmet Aerospace, L3Harris, Northrop Grumman, have surged dramatically since late February, turning what was already a strong sector into one of the clearest beneficiaries of the crisis.
What has drawn renewed attention, however, is the pattern of congressional stock trading in these very companies over the past year. Disclosures required under the STOCK Act reveal dozens of buys and sells in aerospace and defense names throughout 2025, many of which have delivered substantial gains as the war unfolded.
Standout Cases That Raise Eyebrows
Senator Ashley Brooke Moody stands out for the scale of her early bets on Howmet Aerospace Inc., a critical supplier of engine components and structural forgings used across military aircraft and missiles. She bought shares twice in early 2025: a larger position on January 22 (valued $50,001-$100,000) that has since appreciated over 107%, and another on April 4 ($15,001-$50,000 range) now up more than 133%. These purchases occurred well before the February 2026 strikes, but they have benefited enormously from the surge in demand for high-performance aerospace parts amid sustained air campaigns.
Representative Michael McCaul, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has long championed robust U.S. military support for Israel, was particularly active. In January 2025 he added significantly to GE Aerospace, once in the $50,001-$75,000 range (now up 82%) and again later that month (up 76%). In March he bought Woodward Inc., a maker of precision controls and actuation systems, in a position now up 114%. McCaul’s committee role gives him regular access to classified briefings on Iran and regional security; his early-year buys aligned with periods of rising U.S. aid commitments and proxy confrontations involving Iran-backed groups.
Senator Markwayne Mullin also captured strong returns on L3Harris Technologies Inc., a major provider of electronic warfare, communications, and missile-defense systems now heavily engaged in the current conflict. His February 13 purchase has returned 82%, while a May 13 buy is up nearly 67%.
Other House members showed similar timing:
Gilbert Cisneros bought into Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, and smaller names in spring/summer 2025, with many positions gaining 38-53%.
Bruce Westerman and Joshua Gottheimer secured solid upside on RTX Corp purchases in early 2025 (around 68% appreciation).
Lisa Carmella McClain added to Northrop Grumman, BWX Technologies, and Curtiss-Wright in mid-2025, capturing 43-52% gains on several trades.
The Broader Picture
Across the disclosed transactions from 2025, buys heavily outnumbered and outpaced sells in terms of realized or paper gains once the war began. Many of the larger or earlier purchases, especially in Howmet Aerospace, GE Aerospace, RTX, L3Harris, and Lockheed Martin, saw average appreciation of 50-100% or more by early March 2026.
The total estimated mid-range value of disclosed buys in these defense names throughout 2025 runs well into the millions across dozens of transactions. For several of the most active traders, net exposure tilted toward long positions that have proven highly profitable since the strikes commenced.
The Uncomfortable Optics
No public evidence has surfaced proving that any of these trades relied on non-public information about war planning. Still, the pattern is hard to ignore: lawmakers with committee oversight of foreign policy, intelligence, and defense appropriations made significant investments in companies that stand to gain directly from prolonged conflict and increased U.S./Israeli military spending. Emergency supplemental funding packages, already moving through Congress and expected to direct billions toward these contractors, only amplify the stakes.
As the war continues, with Iran vowing larger retaliatory strikes and the risk of wider regional involvement growing, these positions could appreciate further. For the American public facing higher fuel prices, elevated military risk, and the human cost of the conflict, the contrast is stark: while the nation bears the burden, some of its elected representatives appear financially positioned to benefit.
